The Iran Nukes Deal and the 1938 Münich Pact
by Bob Quasius – In a move reminiscent of the 1938 Münich Pact that appeased Hitler by serving up part of Czechoslovakia, the Obama administration agreed to a bad deal on Iran Nukes to appease Iran.
I use the term “appeasement” because Iran gave up little of any substance in return for a deal, while the U.S. and other great powers allowed Iran to keep their enrichment capability and heavy water reactor, and partially lifted economic sanctions and freed up frozen assets badly needed by the Iranian economy.
As in 1938, politicians needed diplomatic success to distract attention from domestic woes at home. Europeans were understandably war weary twenty years after the great war, and frightened by Hitler’s bellicose rhetoric.
With Obama’s Obamacare “train wreck” and leadership failures on immigration reform, he needed a diplomatic success at any cost. There’s also been a lot of bellicose rhetoric coming from Iran and it’s allies lately.
Obama has long been hostile towards Israel, and no doubt felt no need to protect Israel’s self-defense needs.
Lesson of the 1938 Münich Pact
In response to increasingly bellicose rhetoric about Czechoslovakia from German Füher Adolf Hitler, the great powers convened in Münich to find a diplomatic solution. Czechoslovakia was invited to early talks, but purposefully not invited to the final negotiations.
It’s obvious that British Chamberlain and the other great powers wanted a deal at any cost. Europe was still mired in the great depression and the memory of World War I deeply scarred the minds of many Europeans. Clearly Chamberlain and the others wanted a diplomatic success to distract attention from economic problems at home.
“If at first you don’t succeed, try, try, try again.” – Neville Chamberlain, 1938
Hitler was all too willing to meet Chamberlain’s political need to agree to anything to “win peace”, and demanded that Czechoslovakia hand over the Sudetenland region to Germany. Not surprisingly Czechoslovakia refused. After the Münich Pact was signed – without Czechoslovakia – Neville Chamberlain bragged how he saved world peace.
The rest is history. Czechoslovakia’s frontier defenses were nearly all located in the Sudetenland, and the Czechs lost their capability to defend against the inevitable German aggression six months later. Germany also occupied Austria and the Ruhr without ever firing a shot.
11 months later Germany invaded Poland, miscalculating that England and France had no stomach for war.
Appeasement by England and France also encouraged Russia to sign a non-aggression pact with Germany, then turn on it’s neighbors Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
The Pretext for Iran Nukes
Iran has always claimed it needs nuclear power for its economy. However, Iran virtually floats on a sea of oil. Moreover, nations can buy nuclear plants and fuel from elsewhere without the need to develop their own nuclear energy technology.
To acquire nuclear power plants, nations must sign and follow the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Iran signed the NPT before the Ayatollahs came to power, but was caught red handed with a secret Uranium enrichment program in 2003 and remained in constant non-compliance ever since. Russia has sold Iran nuclear plants and fuel despite Iran’s refusal to abide by the NPT.
Nuclear reactors require low enriched Uranium of about 3.5% enrichment. Once Iran achieved the capability for low enriched Uranium, Iran quickly began work on 19.5% highly enriched Uranium, claiming Iran needs medical isotopes. However, medical isotopes are readily available for purchase on world markets, and producing medical isotopes requires technological mastery well beyond the capability of Iran.
There are only two other reasons for a nation to produce highly enriched Uranium:
- Nuclear weapons.
- Nuclear powered warships use highly enriched Uranium for more compact nuclear reactors. However, Iran lacks a blue water Navy, and thus doesn’t need nuclear powered ships.
There is just a short step from 19.5% highly enriched Uranium to even more highly enriched Uranium needed to manufacture nuclear weapons, and the same centrifuges that enrich Uranium to 3.5% can be used to make 97% enriched Uranium for nuclear bombs, but it requires large numbers of centrifuges to make enough material for nukes.
The Long Record of Deception for Iran Nukes
For decades, Iran told the West it wasn’t interested in talks about much of anything.
However, of the past ten years, whenever it appeared Israel or the West was prepared to act militarily to stop Iran’s nuclear program, Iran agreed to talks, then dragged its’feet before talks finally happened, and offered little of substance at the talks, which always ended with no progress. Meanwhile, Iran bought time to push it’s nuclear program forward without fear of a military strike while talks were upcoming or during talks.
Essentially took a page out of North Korea’s playbook. North Korea bought time with talks, and after agreeing to abandon nuclear weapons development in exchange for aid, developed nukes anyway. When North Korea surprised the world with a nuclear detonation, it was already too late: the ‘train had already left the station.’
Recently Hassan Rouhani was elected President of Iran. Rouhani bragged just a few months ago how he deceived the West for years about Iran nukes, as Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator.
The West has long vainly sought “moderates” in the Iranian regime, and liberals were ecstatic when Rouhani was elected, wishfully thinking at long last Iran had finally elected a “moderate.”
However, those who embrace Hassan Rouhani as a “moderate” fail to understand Iran’s system of government. The real power in Iran lies with the Ayatollahs, particularly Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei.
Iran’s Council of Guardians has veto power over candidates for public office, and every election vast numbers of candidates are rejected. Only a handful of candidates whose views are close to Khamenei’s are allowed to run. In short, there are NO moderates in Iran’s regime, and any thoughts to the contrary are nothing more than wishful thinking.
This past election cycle, the Council of Guardians rejected the candidacy of former president Rafsanjani, apparently in retaliation for not coming down hard on the Greens during the protests and civil unrest. which made him not extreme enough for Khamenei.
If you think Khamenei is a moderate, then listen to his comments shortly before the Iran nuke appeasement was offered up in Geneva.
”Zionist officials cannot be called humans, they are like animals, some of them. The Israeli regime is doomed to failure and annihilation.”
Khamenei soon followed his speech with this Facebook post and tweet.
Ayatollah Khamenei and Hassan Rouhani and the 12th Imam Cult
Like Ahmadinejad before him Iran’s new president Hassan Rouhani belongs to the 12th Imam Cult. So does Khamenei. Ayatollah Khomeini thought the 12th Imam cult so extreme, even by his standards, that he banned the cult! The Archbishop Cranmer blog aptly describes Rouhani’s 12er views:
“Cleric Hassan Rouhani is a pious man, devoted like all Shias to the Hidden Imam, the Messiah-like figure of Shia Islam. This President, like the previous one, believes that his government must prepare the country for the Imam’s return. All streams of Islam believe in a divine saviour, known as the Mahdi, who will appear at the End of Days in the company of Isa (Jesus). But President/Cleric Rouhani pledged himself with Ayatollah Khamenei decades ago to work for the return of the Mahdi. Indeed, Iran’s military involvement in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq is purposely designed to agitate against Israel to hasten the Last Day. Iran’s dominant ‘Twelver’ sect believes the Mahdi will be Mohammed ibn Hasan, regarded as the 12th Imam and descendant of the Prophet Mohammed.”
Members of the 12th Imam cult believe the Mahdi, or hidden Imam, will return after a period of unprecedented bloodshed and create a worldwide caliphate, and that they can create conditions to bring about the Mahdi’s return.
Fanatics and Nuclear Weapons Don’t Mix!
Guess what fanatics with nuclear weapons can do?
Four nukes is sufficient to destroy tiny Israel. Israel has enough nukes to thoroughly damage Iran, a much larger nation. Many Western leaders who still don’t grasp the apocalyptic views of Iran’s leaders assume Iran would never use nukes or give them to terrorists who would.
However, when you listen to their own rhetoric about annihilating Israel and the constant talk about the Mahdi returning to Earth, the threat of a nuclear armed Iran with apocalyptic leaders must be taken very seriously! Just listen to Ahmadinejad’s speech to the UN.
President Rouhani is cut from the same cloth as Khamenei and Ahmadinejad, and none of them are to be trusted with the capability to produce and deliver nuclear weapons!
War is the Failure of Diplomacy
“All war represents a failure of diplomacy.” Tony Denn, British Labour Party politician (source)
The 1938 Münich Pact was an abject failure, and so too will be the Geneva accords. Has the world forgotten North Korea use the same playbook to build nukes after agreeing not to, in exchange for food and energy aid?
The Geneva accords basically recognized Iran’s right to continue it’s nuclear program, and while certain aspects of Iran’s program are temporarily suspended while a permanent agreement is sought, as always verification is very difficult, and Iran has a long history of refusing to cooperate with nuclear inspectors, and hiding nuclear facilities until revealed by Western or Israeli spy agencies, or by Iranian resistance moles inside the regime.
Like the 1938 Münich Pact, the small nation that was ‘thrown under the bus’ was not invited to the talks but expected to abide by an agreement negotiated by others and fiercely resisted. Czechoslovakia wasn’t strong enough to refuse to abide by the Münich Pact, but Israel is quite a different matter.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly warned the world the deal being negotiated was a bad deal. Israel has enough military resources that we can fully expect Israel to strike Iran nuclear facilities, and reports are already rampant that Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, who rightly fear a nuclear-armed Iran, will work with Israel to make a strike a reality.
Now that diplomacy has so clearly failed, we can expect Israel will waste no more time, and will act, and act decisively. I hope the world is ready for a regional war in the Middle East and South Asia that will make Iraq and Afghanistan look like schoolyard brawl!
Bob Quasius is the founder and President of Cafe Con Leche Republicans